Research
Theses, post-mortems, methodology. Educational only — not investment advice.
A single signal is noise. Twelve aligned witnesses are a position. The arithmetic of agreement, in detail.
The best edge is often the trade you skip. A taxonomy of setups that look like opportunity and aren't.
Insider activity. Activist filings. Smart money. Catalysts. PEAD. Each layer, its weighting, its decay function.
Hit-rate is vanity. Slugging average is sanity. Patience-adjusted return is the metric that survives the cycle.
The thesis, once a month.
I consent to receive onecap research updates. Unsubscribe at any time.
